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ARV and 70% Rule Calculator

Last updated: August 2026

After repair value is the anchor of every flip — purchase price, loan size and profit are all derived from it, so an ARV that is out by ten percent puts everything downstream out by more. Build it from comparable sales below, then work out what you can pay.

Build ARV from comparable sales

Three renovated properties, nearby, sold recently. The calculator flags it when your comps disagree with each other or when the ARV lands above the local ceiling.

Comparable sales — renovated, nearby, recent
$226 per sq ft
$225 per sq ft
$224 per sq ft
After repair value
$326,304
1,450 sq ft × $225 per sq ft
Your comps agree within 1% and the ARV sits under the local ceiling. That consistency is what makes the estimate usable.

What makes a comp usable

CriterionTargetAcceptable
DistanceSame neighbourhoodHalf a mile in a city
RecencyLast 3 monthsLast 6 months
SizeWithin 10%Within 20%
Beds and bathsIdenticalOne bath different
AgeWithin 10 yearsSame broad era
ConditionRenovatedRecently updated

Condition is the one people get wrong. A distressed sale two doors down tells you what your property is worth now, not what it will be worth finished. Using it produces an ARV close to the current value — which makes every deal look bad, or worse, gets adjusted upward by feel until it looks good.

Maximum offer under the 70% rule

Maximum offer = (ARV × 0.70) − repairs. The table below the calculator stresses both estimates, because the rule inherits every error in the two numbers it uses.

Maximum offer
$169,500
($325,000 × 70%) − $58,000
The 30% held back is $97,500. That is not profit. It covers purchase closing costs, holding costs, financing points and interest, selling costs including commission, a contingency for overruns — and then profit, last.
What happens if the estimates are wrong
ScenarioARVRepairsMax offerDifference
As estimated$325,000$58,000$169,500—
ARV 10% light$292,500$58,000$146,750−$22,750
Repairs 20% over$325,000$69,600$157,900−$11,600
Both$292,500$69,600$135,150−$34,350

The arithmetic is never wrong. The inputs are. If you paid the top figure and the bottom row is what turned out to be true, you overpaid by that amount — and the rule gave no warning, because both estimates moved after the offer.

A screening filter, not a valuation. Use it to decide what to analyse properly, then build a full pro forma before you buy.

Maximum offer lookup chart

After repair value across the top, repair cost down the side. Cells are the maximum offer at 70%.

Repairs ↓ / ARV →$150k$200k$250k$300k$350k$400k$500k
$10k$0.095k$0.13k$0.165k$0.2k$0.235k$0.27k$0.34k
$25k$0.08k$0.115k$0.15k$0.185k$0.22k$0.255k$0.325k
$40k$0.065k$0.1k$0.135k$0.17k$0.205k$0.24k$0.31k
$55k$0.05k$0.085k$0.12k$0.155k$0.19k$0.225k$0.295k
$70k$0.035k$0.07k$0.105k$0.14k$0.175k$0.21k$0.28k
$90k$0.015k$0.05k$0.085k$0.12k$0.155k$0.19k$0.26k

Notice the bottom left corner. A $150,000 ARV needing $90,000 of work leaves a maximum offer of $15,000 — technically a number, practically not a deal. Fixed costs do not scale down, which is why the rule needs a lower percentage on cheap property rather than the same one.

Where the percentage should actually sit

SituationSuggestedWhy
First flip, hard money65–70%Estimates least reliable, money most expensive
Experienced, private capital75%Lower financing cost, tighter estimates
Very competitive market75–80%Thinner margins or no deals at all
Slow market, long days on market65%Holding costs run longer
Structural work or permits60–65%Longer timeline, higher overrun risk
Property under $100k55–65%Fixed costs consume a larger share
Light cosmetic, fast turnaround75%Little can go wrong and it goes quickly

What the 30% actually covers

The number people miss is that the 30% is not profit. Profit is the last item on a list, after everything else has taken its share.

ItemTypical share of ARV
Purchase closing costs1–2%
Holding — interest, taxes, insurance, utilities4–8%
Selling — commission, closing, concessions6–8%
Financing points and fees1–3%
Contingency for overruns3–5%
Profit6–12%

In a redemption state, price the risk you do not keep it

A purchase at 70% of ARV is frequently well under half of assessed value — and in states with a post-sale redemption period, that is the profile most likely to be reclaimed by the former owner.

Sheriff sale bid vs assessed valueOwner redeemedWindows
Under 50%58.1%31
50–80%44.2%77
80% or more20.0%50

Observed across tracked Minnesota redemption windows. The rule optimises for a discount that is itself the strongest predictor you will not keep the property. The certificate holder receives their money back with statutory interest, which is a return — but it is not a flip.

Frequently asked questions

What is ARV in real estate?
After repair value: what a property will be worth once renovation is complete. It is calculated from recent sales of comparable renovated properties in the same area, not from the current condition of the subject property and not from an automated estimate.
How do you calculate ARV?
Find recent sales of renovated properties comparable to what the subject will be after work — same neighbourhood, similar size, age, bed and bath count, sold in the last three to six months. Take the price per square foot those sales agree on and apply it to the finished square footage, then adjust for real differences.
What is the 70% rule?
A screening formula for flips. Maximum offer equals after repair value multiplied by 0.70, minus estimated repair costs. The 30% withheld covers buying and selling costs, holding costs, financing, a contingency for overruns and profit. It is a filter for deciding what to analyse, not a valuation.
How many comparable sales do you need?
Three at minimum, and they should agree with each other. If three comps produce widely different price per square foot figures, the area is not homogeneous enough for the method and the ARV is far less reliable than the single number suggests.
Should you use 70% or 75%?
It depends on your costs and market. Higher percentages mean thinner buffers, which experienced buyers can carry because their financing is cheaper and their repair estimates are better. A first flip financed with hard money should be at 70 or below, not above.
Why does the 70% rule fail on cheap houses?
Because fixed costs do not scale down. Closing costs, permits, utilities and contractor minimums are broadly the same on a $60,000 property as on a $300,000 one, so they consume a much larger share of the margin. On low-value property the percentage needs to be lower.
Can you use Zillow for ARV?
Not reliably. Automated valuation models are trained on normal sales and perform worst on distressed and recently renovated property, which is exactly the population that matters here. They also cannot see the work you plan to do. Use recorded sales of comparable renovated properties instead.
What is the biggest ARV mistake?
Using unrenovated comps. A distressed sale down the street tells you what the property is worth now, not what it will be worth finished. The second is stretching the radius or date range until the comps support the number the deal needs.
Related
What is ARV
Which comps count, and why automated estimates fail here
The 70% rule
A full pro forma alongside the rule, and where it breaks
Hard money calculator
What the financing inside that 30% actually costs
What predicts redemption
The equity finding, with its methodology